TOKYO—In a recent post on the social media platform X, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has issued a stark warning about Japan’s demographic trajectory, stating that the country “will lose almost a million people this year.” The comment, which has garnered significant attention, underscores a long-standing demographic crisis in the nation.
Musk’s statement comes amidst official data showing a widening gap between births and deaths in Japan. Recent government reports indicate that the population fell by approximately 900,000 in the past year, marking the largest single-year decline on record. This trend is a result of a consistently low birth rate and an aging population, which has been developing for decades. The Japanese government’s own data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications confirms that the population has been shrinking for 16 consecutive years.
While Musk’s post framed the problem as a demographic inevitability set in motion a half-century ago, he also offered a provocative solution. He explicitly stated that artificial intelligence (AI) was not the cause of the decline but could be “the only hope for turning this around.” This viewpoint has been met with a mix of agreement and caution from experts, who generally agree that technological aids like AI can help mitigate some of the effects of a shrinking workforce but are not a standalone solution for the underlying social and economic factors driving low fertility rates.
The demographic shifts in Japan present a significant challenge, including a shrinking workforce, increased pressure on social security and healthcare systems, and a potential reduction in global influence. The crisis is also leading to a decline in rural populations, with a record number of abandoned homes. The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has acknowledged the issue as a “quiet emergency” and has introduced measures such as free childcare, though experts suggest these efforts have so far had limited success in reversing the trend.
