Goldman Sachs economists have pointed to shifts in the U.S. labor market as a result of the rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI), with early signs of these changes already reflected in employment data.
Joseph Briggs, senior global economist at Goldman Sachs Research, noted that while most companies have yet to deploy AI in their production processes, the broader job market has not yet felt a significant impact. However, Briggs highlighted that the technology sector is already experiencing signs of hiring slowdowns, with younger workers being the most affected.
Tech executives have increasingly acknowledged the impact of AI on their workforce. Companies such as Alphabet and Microsoft have reported that AI-generated code now makes up approximately 30% of certain projects. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff revealed in June that AI handles as much as 50% of his company’s work.
Briggs pointed out that younger tech workers are the most vulnerable to automation, as their roles are the first to show signs of being replaced by AI.
He further explained that under a baseline scenario, 6% to 7% of workers could lose their jobs due to AI-driven automation over time. However, if the adoption of AI occurs more rapidly than the assumed ten-year timeline, the transition could prove more painful for workers and the broader U.S. economy. This acceleration could be driven by technological advances or by economic slowdowns that push businesses to cut costs.